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Each of us probably already has some more-or-less conscious method of quick estimation I tend to create a quick work breakdown structure, a simple to-do list, and estimate by adding up times from the detailed items Someone else might do a quick estimation of units of work multiplied by e ort Someone else might list the stages, and compare to time and cost of similar past projects All of these quick techniques have their aws The more thoroughly developed methods presented below are better But we can use these methods when we need them, and there are some ways of getting better results One key to success of any of these methods is to cross-check against one or more other methods.

Fig 814: A graphical representation of the Euler-Bernoulli solution [8]

Did you include all major components All stages The cost of changes The rework necessary during testing Another key is simply to write down your thoughts, set them aside, then read them again later, or show them to someone else if you can Revise before doing your calculations If your organization tracks e ort on past projects, you can estimate phases or milestones in comparison to similar past projects It is better to do this by stage or by deliverable, and to draw from several di erent projects if you can Be sure to use actual results, and not estimates from past projects.

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Also, when looking at a set of past projects, make adjustments based on intelligent questions, such as: Is the deliverable exactly the same, simpler, or more complicated Is the customer more or less demanding than the customer on the past project Are there any costly errors we will avoid this time What are the important di erences between the initial situation this time and the initial situation last time Does the person doing the work now have more or less experience Any estimation method that avoids bias and asks these intelligent questions is a good start If you review your assumptions and use two such methods, you are likely to get even better results Now, let us take a look two more sophisticated methods of early time estimation..

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Example: Cantilever Beam It is given that a is the thickness of the beam, b is the width of the beam and l is the length of the beam The mass of the beam is given as m = rabl, and the moment is given as M(l) = 0 and M(0) = Fl The problem is solved by approximating the cantilever beam as a mass on a spring The stiffness from the Euler Bernoulli equations is utilized, and the movement should be approximated w =

PART THREE Skills and Tools USING A MODIFICATION OF THE WIDE-BAND DELPHI METHOD FOR TIME AND COST ESTIMATION

Microelectro-mechanical Systems (MEMS)

Fig 816: A cantilever beam [8]

One of the methods, a modi cation of the Wide-Band Delphi technique, can be used to create a quick scope statement and estimate of value. It works for time, cost, risk, and other areas of concern on our project. Delphi sessions are expensive, as they require a team of experts. Table 10-2 gives a procedure for this modi cation of the Delphi approach.

From the Euler Bernoulli equation, the following can be derived:

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